The 2012 presidential race is the first to fall under new rules from the Republican National Committee, which had intended the contests to start in February, a month later than in 2008. But at least a half dozen states are threatening to defy the rules and move up their primaries.

The result is that the first ballots are once again likely to be cast in January as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina move up the dates of their contests to protect their franchises as the early voting states.

At the same time, the rush toward the front of the calendar by Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia and Missouri is accompanied by another trend: several states are pushing back their presidential primaries ? or canceling them entirely ? because of tight state budgets.

The outcome is a sharply scaled-back set of contests in the weeks after the initial flurry ? with Super Tuesday in particular diminished in importance ? followed by a stretch of primaries lasting until summer.

The California presidential primary, which in 2008 took place in February, is most likely to be held in June, the same day as the statewide primary, to save the state $100 million. New York, which also held its presidential primary in February last time, has pushed back its date to April 24. And the state of Washington will not hold its presidential primary to save $10 million.

?If there was ever a calendar that was designed for the nominating battle to go the distance, this is it,? said John Weaver, the chief strategist for the campaign of Jon M. Huntsman Jr., a former governor of Utah. ?It could easily go into April and May.?

The unsettled calendar has created anxiety and opportunity for Republican candidates.

If Gov. Rick Perry of Texas enters the race, as his advisers believe he will in the next few weeks, he could face a hospitable run of primaries. The Texas primary on March 6, which comes with a large trove of delegates, will be followed by several other contests across the South.

Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, has been working to build a muscular political organization to help fortify him through a drawn-out nominating fight. His associates have urged Utah, which he won in 2008, to move up its primary so a clutch of Western states could provide friendly terrain. Republicans in Idaho voted last week to hold caucuses on March 6.

A game of leapfrog takes place every presidential election cycle, with states trying to break the monopoly that Iowa and New Hampshire have held for decades by holding the first caucus and first primary. Yet every effort has produced the same result: Iowa and New Hampshire simply move up their contests.

?At this point, there are a few more states in play than there were four years ago,? said William M. Gardner, New Hampshire?s secretary of state. ?New Hampshire will be the first. I just don?t know when it will be.?

The catalyst in the intense jockeying among states is Florida. Republican leaders want the state to hold a prominent spot in the early phase of the nominating process. The Legislature formed a committee to select a primary date, which is likely to be in early March, but could move to February or late January if other states advance their contests.

The ambitions of Florida are being carefully watched by Republican leaders in other states that have their own aspirations to play a key role in helping to select the party?s nominee.

?We can?t let Florida establish an early beachhead in the process,? said Saul Anuzis, a member of the Republican National Committee who is from Michigan. ?There?s been this game of chicken between Florida and Michigan, saying if you guys go early, we?re going to go early.?

Kitty Bennett contributed reporting.