Economic Scene: For Obama, Tax Deal Is a Back-Door Stimulus Plan

A year ago, President Obama and the Democrats made the mistake of assuming that an economic recovery was under way. This week?s deal to extend the Bush tax cuts shows that the White House?s top priority is avoiding the same mistake again ? even if it has to upset many fellow Democrats in the process.

Mr. Obama effectively traded tax cuts for the affluent, which Republicans were demanding, for a second stimulus bill that seemed improbable a few weeks ago. Mr. Obama yielded to Republicans on extending the high-end Bush tax cuts and on cutting the estate tax below its scheduled level. In exchange, Republicans agreed to extend unemployment benefits, cut payroll taxes and business taxes, and extend a grab bag of tax credits for college tuition and other items.

For the White House, the deal represents a clear shift in policy focus. Mr. Obama and Democrats spent much of the last year pursuing long-term goals like a health care overhaul and financial regulation, while hoping the economic recovery would continue. But with the recovery faltering and Republicans retaking the House, the administration is turning back to short-term job creation.

Congressional Democrats have reacted with a mix of wariness and anger, and some said Mr. Obama should have put up a fight on the high-end tax cuts. Yet once the Democrats bungled this issue ? failing to deal with it before the midterm elections ? their choices were extremely limited. If they stood firm on the high-end tax cuts and Republicans stood firm as well, all of the Bush tax cuts, not just those on income above $250,000, would have expired Dec. 31. The economy would surely have suffered as a result, and a bad economy is rarely good for the party that holds the White House.

Tellingly, economists and Democratic policy experts were largely pleased with the deal. Forecasting firms on Tuesday upgraded their estimates for growth and job gains over the next two years. Economists at Goldman Sachs, who have been more negative and more accurate than most Wall Street forecasters lately, called the deal ?significantly more positive? than they had anticipated.

And left-leaning policy experts said the package did more to create jobs than they had thought possible after the Republicans? midterm election victories. Robert Greenstein, Lawrence Mishel and John Podesta ? who run prominent Washington research groups that range from liberal to staunchly liberal ? all offered praise for the package. Of its estimated $900 billion-plus cost over two years, roughly $120 billion covers the high-end tax cuts and the estate tax cut, $450 billion covers Mr. Obama?s wish list and $360 billion covers the tax cut extensions both parties favored.

?People are kind of venting their disappointment and acting as if the administration did a terrible job in the negotiations,? said Mr. Greenstein, who runs the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. ?But it didn?t. The mistake the administration made ? and it was a serious one ? was that it should have dealt with this well before the election.?

Still, the risk for Democrats, and the economy, remains the same as it was. Financial crises wreak terrible havoc. They typically cause unemployment to rise for more than five years and leave consumers and business uncertain about when healthy growth will finally resume. Aftershocks are common, as is evident in Europe. Virtually no economist believes the new stimulus package will be big enough to make the economy feel healthy anytime soon.

The ideal package would have been larger than the current one, and it would have been better tailored. The $120 billion cut in the payroll tax, for example, will apply to the portion paid by workers, not companies. The Congressional Budget Office and other analysts have said that cutting the workers? portion provides less bang for the buck because individuals are likely to save some portion of the money. Cutting the employers? portion subsidizes hiring.

But politics prevented the best kind of payroll tax cut. Republicans did not want one larger than the $120 billion, one-year cut in the package. Administration officials wanted the political benefit of having that whole sum apply to individual workers. The resulting compromise will help the economy, but not as much as it could have.

Initial estimates by economists suggested that the overall legislation would reduce the unemployment rate by one-half a percentage point to a full point over the next year, compared with allowing all the tax cuts to expire and passing no new stimulus. By the end of 2012, the decline could be up to 1.5 percentage points, economists said.

On the other hand, the unemployment rate will still probably be near 8 percent by the end of 2012, when the current package expires, and the two parties will get to have this fight all over again.

What?s the early line on that fight? Republican officials hope that Democrats will again find it hard to let all the tax cuts expire in the name of letting some expire. White House officials hope the economy will have improved enough by then to help Mr. Obama win re-election ? and to allow him to threaten, credibly, to veto any bill that includes a tax cut for the wealthy.

There is also one big unknown looming over the whole debate: the deficit. This week?s deal, of course, will worsen the deficit. In the short run, many economists believe a larger deficit is better than the alternative. As Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, said during a recent ?60 Minutes? interview, ?We don?t want to take actions this year that will affect this year?s spending and this year?s taxes in a way that will hurt the recovery.?

Yet Mr. Bernanke and other economists usually add another point. Any additional spending now, they say, should be paired with future deficit reduction. Otherwise, the long-term deficit will continue to rise, and nervous investors may eventually demand that the federal government pay higher interest rates. Interest rates remain low for now, but they did rise on Tuesday, after the compromise was announced.

The problem is that raising the deficit ? be it through high-end tax cuts or a new stimulus program ? is a lot easier than cutting it. Strange as it may sound, some of the only fiscal conservatives in Washington this week have been liberals who would be willing to let everyone?s taxes rise. And they seem unlikely to win on this issue.

Powered by WizardRSS | Best Membership Site Software

Source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e3633a7d0883a996beadc65747d7ab29

juan manuel marquez vs michael katsidis steven pieper

Biden and G.O.P. Leader Helped Hammer Out Bipartisan Tax Accord

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and a single staff member had slipped into the ceremonial office of Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to try to hash out a compromise directly with the vice president, who was accompanied by a top aide of his own, Ron Klain, his chief of staff.

The meeting was one of a number of direct conversations over the next few days between Mr. Biden and Mr. McConnell, the Senate Republican leader and a Senate colleague of Mr. Biden?s for nearly 25 years, that ultimately led to the agreement reached Monday. It was a bipartisan bargain that ? in a startling departure from the past two years in the capital ? ended with Republicans praising it and Democrats claiming they were blindsided and undercut.

According to those knowledgeable about the events that played out over less than a week, the agreement was the product of a fast-paced series of telephone contacts, conference calls and consultations with Congressional leaders. A critical negotiation on Sunday led to a surprise cut in employee payroll taxes as the men sought to wrap up the deal.

The final pieces came together Monday, when the vice president called Mr. McConnell to inform him of the White House?s price for accepting the Republican plan to provide a generous exemption for taxing wealthy estates. Mr. McConnell called Mr. Biden back late in the day to deliver the Republican sign-off on the administration?s proposed tax breaks for low- and middle-income workers.

The intense back and forth suggests a possible template for how the two parties might interact next year when Republicans control the House and have added to their numbers in the Senate.

?There is still much left to be done for the American people in the next two years, and I am hoping this won?t be the last time we can do something for the country on a bipartisan basis,? Mr. McConnell said on Tuesday, suggesting that divided government could provide an opening for tackling such explosive subjects as entitlement spending.

With hefty Democratic majorities in Congress the past two years, the White House has had little direct engagement with the Republican leadership, trying instead to win over individual Republicans on a bill-by-bill basis.

That situation seems to have shifted markedly since the midterm elections, though the White House sought to portray Mr. Biden?s role in the tax negotiations as similar to his efforts to produce forward movement on a nuclear arms reduction treaty and other issues that could benefit from his nearly four decades in the Senate.

?He has from the beginning been an über liaison to his former colleagues,? one aide said.

But the depth of the personal negotiations between Mr. Biden and Mr. McConnell was remarkable. It began with an unsolicited phone call from the vice president to the Republican leader?s office just hours after the first post-election bipartisan meeting at the White House on Nov. 30.

By that session, according to administration officials, Mr. Obama had decided not to side with those in his administration and among Congressional Democrats who were spoiling to fight Republicans on the Bush-era tax cuts for those with high incomes even though the Democrats appeared to lack the votes in the Senate. Instead, he would test Republicans? willingness to make concessions for economic stimulus measures and ?the Obama tax cuts? for low- and middle-income workers. Then, if Republicans gave him the back of the hand, he would fight.

Mr. Obama was propelled to his decision in part by a Nov. 18 meeting with Democratic Congressional leaders that persuaded him the Democrats were not unified behind a realistic plan for moving forward.

So at the bipartisan leadership meeting last week, the White House and Congressional leaders agreed to what became known as ?the six-pack? talks, with two negotiators each to represent the White House, Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans. At the same time, Mr. Obama made an undisclosed move that proved more conclusive: He gave a green light to Mr. Biden to pursue a parallel line of communication with Mr. McConnell.

Still, administration officials insist the six-member negotiations were pivotal as well, and early decisions on handling the alternative minimum tax and a separate array of expired or expiring tax breaks, including the credit for corporations? research and development costs, were worked out in that group.

?There was never a time when that was a fake meeting and the real thing was somewhere else,? said an administration official. ?I know what it?s like to go to a meeting that?s Kabuki theater; this wasn?t like that.?

Powered by WizardRSS | Best Membership Site Software

Source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=bf993687d49d6d43d45d3174c6a135cb

bryan cranston cyber monday deals 2010 blac chyna bowl projections

Biden and G.O.P. Leader Helped Hammer Out Bipartisan Tax Accord

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and a single staff member had slipped into the ceremonial office of Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to try to hash out a compromise directly with the vice president, who was accompanied by a top aide of his own, Ron Klain, his chief of staff.

The meeting was one of a number of direct conversations over the next few days between Mr. Biden and Mr. McConnell, the Senate Republican leader and a Senate colleague of Mr. Biden?s for nearly 25 years, that ultimately led to the agreement reached Monday. It was a bipartisan bargain that ? in a startling departure from the past two years in the capital ? ended with Republicans praising it and Democrats claiming they were blindsided and undercut.

According to those knowledgeable about the events that played out over less than a week, the agreement was the product of a fast-paced series of telephone contacts, conference calls and consultations with Congressional leaders. A critical negotiation on Sunday led to a surprise cut in employee payroll taxes as the men sought to wrap up the deal.

The final pieces came together Monday, when the vice president called Mr. McConnell to inform him of the White House?s price for accepting the Republican plan to provide a generous exemption for taxing wealthy estates. Mr. McConnell called Mr. Biden back late in the day to deliver the Republican sign-off on the administration?s proposed tax breaks for low- and middle-income workers.

The intense back and forth suggests a possible template for how the two parties might interact next year when Republicans control the House and have added to their numbers in the Senate.

?There is still much left to be done for the American people in the next two years, and I am hoping this won?t be the last time we can do something for the country on a bipartisan basis,? Mr. McConnell said on Tuesday, suggesting that divided government could provide an opening for tackling such explosive subjects as entitlement spending.

With hefty Democratic majorities in Congress the past two years, the White House has had little direct engagement with the Republican leadership, trying instead to win over individual Republicans on a bill-by-bill basis.

That situation seems to have shifted markedly since the midterm elections, though the White House sought to portray Mr. Biden?s role in the tax negotiations as similar to his efforts to produce forward movement on a nuclear arms reduction treaty and other issues that could benefit from his nearly four decades in the Senate.

?He has from the beginning been an über liaison to his former colleagues,? one aide said.

But the depth of the personal negotiations between Mr. Biden and Mr. McConnell was remarkable. It began with an unsolicited phone call from the vice president to the Republican leader?s office just hours after the first post-election bipartisan meeting at the White House on Nov. 30.

By that session, according to administration officials, Mr. Obama had decided not to side with those in his administration and among Congressional Democrats who were spoiling to fight Republicans on the Bush-era tax cuts for those with high incomes even though the Democrats appeared to lack the votes in the Senate. Instead, he would test Republicans? willingness to make concessions for economic stimulus measures and ?the Obama tax cuts? for low- and middle-income workers. Then, if Republicans gave him the back of the hand, he would fight.

Mr. Obama was propelled to his decision in part by a Nov. 18 meeting with Democratic Congressional leaders that persuaded him the Democrats were not unified behind a realistic plan for moving forward.

So at the bipartisan leadership meeting last week, the White House and Congressional leaders agreed to what became known as ?the six-pack? talks, with two negotiators each to represent the White House, Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans. At the same time, Mr. Obama made an undisclosed move that proved more conclusive: He gave a green light to Mr. Biden to pursue a parallel line of communication with Mr. McConnell.

Still, administration officials insist the six-member negotiations were pivotal as well, and early decisions on handling the alternative minimum tax and a separate array of expired or expiring tax breaks, including the credit for corporations? research and development costs, were worked out in that group.

?There was never a time when that was a fake meeting and the real thing was somewhere else,? said an administration official. ?I know what it?s like to go to a meeting that?s Kabuki theater; this wasn?t like that.?

Powered by WizardRSS | Best Membership Site Software

Source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=bf993687d49d6d43d45d3174c6a135cb

juan manuel marquez vs michael katsidis steven pieper ernest borgnine cwtv

Sources: Microsoft to open 6 new retail stores in 2011, including one in NYC [TNW Microsoft]

As the year begins to come to a close the rumor mill for ?what may or may not happen in 2011? is starting to heat up. Today however, the rumor that we are bringing to you we feel relatively confident in, given who brought the story to light.

Venerable Microsoft watcher Mary-Jo Foley published a very rare ?rumor? post today explaining a tip that she has received surrounding the opening of more physical Microsoft stores. According to her source, as many as 6 new stores could be opened in 2011, including a store in New York City.

Apple stores are generally as nearby to the average consumer as their local mall. If Microsoft intends on matching that their work is cut out for them, but the company does seem determined to at a minimum grow their physical presence to boost their brand image in major markets. Microsoft recently opened their seventh retail store in Bellevue with such pomp that CEO Steven Ballmer even made a speech.

If the company does indeed open another six stores next year, a virtual doubling of their total store numbers, we do not expect Ballmer to make it to them all, but he could show at the NYC location if the situation warrants.

Don?t forget that Microsoft is hardly above hiring a celebrity or two for store openings to ensure big crowds and ample press, a tactic that may keep their store openings in the news. Whatever the case, we have trust in Mary-Jo and her sources, so if you are in one of the three named cities (Houston, Orlando, NYC), expect to have a little piece of Redmond coming to you soon.

Be sure and read our coverage of previous Microsoft store openings all across the United States.

Powered by WizardRSS | Best Membership Site Software

Source: http://thenextweb.com/microsoft/2010/12/08/sources-microsoft-to-open-6-new-retail-stores-in-2011-including-one-in-nyc/

bowl projections big 12 championship tickets notre dame football juan manuel marquez vs michael katsidis

Facebook breaches Korean privacy laws, has 30 days to respond to complaints [TNW Facebook]

Facebook has been accused of breaching data privacy laws in South Korea, with regulators unhappy with the way the social network is handling its users? personal information.

The Korea Communications Commission has also criticised Facebook?s provision of personal information, as well as its privacy policy, saying it ?violates the regulations on protection of privacy in information networks?.

The commission also suggested Facebook needs to do a better job of gaining consent from users when using personal data.

Mark Zuckerberg and its company will have 30 days to respond to the claims, the KCC said.

ComputerWorld states:

Article 22 of South Korea?s ?Act on Promotion of Information and Communication Network Utilization and Information Protection? states: ?If an information and communications service provider intends to gather user personal information, they shall obtain user consent.?

Facebook will need to respond quickly to the complaints as the social network is enjoying growth in the country. Currently, the social network has around 2.3 million members, equating to roughly 5% of the population, definitely something Facebook will not want to ignore.

Powered by WizardRSS | Best Membership Site Software

Source: http://thenextweb.com/facebook/2010/12/08/facebook-breaches-korean-data-laws-has-30-days-to-respond-to-complaints/

ernest borgnine cwtv bee movie jenni lyn watson

Sundance Film Festival gets trippy with Gowalla (and how to win a free flight to the festival) [TNW Location]

Gowalla has teamed up with the Sundance Film Festival to offer custom Stamps, Pins and special check-in activiated prizes for the festival in January 2011.

As it does with many (if not all) of its special event promotions Gowalla will put together a Trip for festival-goers. Users that go on the Trip can earn Pins, some of which can be redeemed for prizes or VIP access to events and parties (this is Hollywood ? kinda ? after all).

Festivals, conferences, and really any large and distributed event are ideal uses for check-in apps (the check-in ?craze? started during SXSW after all), and Sundance should be no exception. It?s also a good win for Gowalla, which just released version 3.0 of its app, integrating Foursquare and Facebook check-ins among other changes.

That said, probably the most exciting part of this partnership comes from a third partner ? Southwest Airlines. Southwest will fly twenty lucky winners to Park City / Salt Lake City for the festival. To get a chance to win, all you need to do is check-in on Gowalla at an airport that has direct flights to Salt Lake City (SLC) between December 8-31. We?re assuming that you?ll find out if you?ve won right when you check-in, but that wasn?t 100% clear from the press release. At any rate, if you?re keen on going to Sundance and are travelling this holiday season, certainly don?t forget to check-in!

Powered by WizardRSS | Best Membership Site Software

Source: http://thenextweb.com/location/2010/12/08/sundance-gets-trippy-with-gowalla-and-how-to-win-a-free-flight-to-the-festival/

steven pieper ernest borgnine cwtv bee movie

OnLive coming to iPad, Android, has potential beyond gaming

OnLive has announced the availability of a new application called "OnLive Viewer" for Apple's iPad. The free software allows users to spectate games being played on the service, but it won't actually let iPad users play games -- at least not yet anyway.

The company said its new app is just a taste of what's to come. Most games aren't optimized for touch controls yet, but full game capabilities will be supported in the future. For now, OnLive has kicked things off by focusing on spectating and social features.

OnLive Viewer isn't limited to Apple's platform mind you, a version is also being developed for Android devices such as the recently launched Samsung Galaxy Tab. That project is currently in beta, but we haven't seen an official release projection.


What's possibly more exciting, however, is OnLive Viewer's potential beyond gaming. Just as OnLive allows you to stream high-end video games on low-end hardware, it could be used to access intensive desktop software from mobile devices.

During a conference today, OnLive CEO Steve Perlman showed how the OnLive Viewer could be used to access powerful enterprise software such as Autodesk Maya. The viewer was also shown running Flash web pages as well as Windows 7 Touch.

Powered by WizardRSS | Best Membership Site Software

Source: http://www.techspot.com/news/41473-onlive-coming-to-ipad-android-has-potential-beyond-gaming.html

cyber monday deals 2010 blac chyna bowl projections big 12 championship tickets

7 Easy-To-Use Tools To Start Blogging Now [TNW Social Media]

We often hear from people that they just don?t have enough time to blog. People are busy running their business or taking care of their daily lives and blogging is something that fits in way down the list of priorities. But it doesn?t have to be like that. Up until a couple of years ago blogging used to involve serious coding and design knowledge but these days the tools are out there to help you get great content online in minutes. The following list are some services and tools that enable you to create great compelling content in less than 5 minutes and have a web presence that people will find interesting and keep coming back to. There is no excuse for you not to start blogging now with this list of 7 great tools for blogging in less than 5 minutes.

Tumblr

This is possibly the easiest tool to use on this whole list. If used correctly you?ll actually be able to get blog posts up in less than 30 seconds (photos, videos and links). Tumblr is essentially somewhere between Twitter and fully fledged blogging. You can add any sort of media including audio and video. One of the best uses is to install the Tumblr app on your phone and you can be publishing within seconds of finding great content. Works especially well for people who are not great writers and would rather just use rich media content. Tumblr gives you a choice of simple themes and colors to personalize the look and feel of your blog.

Audioboo.Com

Podcasting used to be reserved to the geekiest among us who had the nous to set up complicated hosting and iTunes accounts. Luckily for the rest, in stepped Audioboo. This is a great tool that lets you capture audio within a couple of clicks through either the website or their apps and the real beauty is that they host the file and allow you to embed it in to your blog or website in a couple of seconds. Again a perfect tool for people who don?t feel comfortable writing and you don?t need any editing or fancy equipment to set up your own podcast and embed it in to your blog.

Youtube Instant Video

People think that to start your own video blog you need tons of fancy equipment and the ability to edit your own footage. The truth is that with the Youtube webcam you can have your own video show up and running in less than 2 minutes. All you need to do is hit the record button, look into your webcam and capture the content that you want to feature on your new video blog. Once the video has processed just embed it into your blog or Tumblr?a 10 second process? and repeat that over and over again. Having your own video blog (or vlog) has never been this easy.

WordPress Post By Voice

Picture the scene as you walk out of a pub after a long night of drinking when a thought pops in to your head for a new blog post. No longer will you have to risk losing that thought forever because now all you have to do is pick up aphone and call in the blog post. The instructions are all on that blog post but essentially once you call the number it creates a voice file which uploads to your blog automatically and can even be customized with RSS feeds etc.

WordPress Apps

You are not going to be able to write your life story from WordPress mobile apps but they do allow you to post blog posts on the go. It?s perfect for creating short posts. The fact that you can post photos direct from your phone means that it is perfect for posing short blog posts while you are on holiday or traveling. The app is simple to use and available on the larger iPad.

Posterous

Of all the different tools on the list this one is probably the easiest of the lot. You get great content (text, photo, audio, video etc) and send it to the guys @ Posterous (by web, email or mobile) and they will publish it to a lovely clean webpage and then share it automatically based on your preferences. This really is blogging stripped down to the basics, allowing you to focus on nothing but the content.

Ping.Fm

Once you have your lovely blog content you will have to move on to promoting it. The big problem with that is that it takes time and by the time you get around the various social networks and profiles that you want to share your link on you?ve wasted 15 minutes. Luckily with Ping.fm set up correctly, you?ll be able to push blog content out to all the different places it needs to be with one click. You can even get smarter than that and use RSS to make ping.fm publish your content to all your social networks automatically.

Powered by WizardRSS | Best Membership Site Software

Source: http://thenextweb.com/socialmedia/2010/12/08/7-easy-to-use-tools-to-start-blogging-now/

ernest borgnine cwtv bee movie jenni lyn watson