House G.O.P. Members Face Voter Anger Over Budget

At roughly the same time in Wisconsin, Representative Paul D. Ryan, the architect of the Republican budget proposal, faced a packed town meeting, occasional boos and a skeptical audience as he tried to lay out his party?s rationale for overhauling the health insurance program for retirees.

In a church theater here on Tuesday evening, a meeting between Representative Allen B. West and some of his constituents began on a chaotic note, with audience members quickly on their feet, some heckling him and others loudly defending him. ?You?re not going to intimidate me,? Mr. West said. 

After 10 days of trying to sell constituents on their plan to overhaul Medicare, House Republicans in multiple districts appear to be increasingly on the defensive, facing worried and angry questions from voters and a barrage of new attacks from Democrats and their allies.

The proposed new approach to Medicare ? a centerpiece of a budget that Republican leaders have hailed as a courageous effort to address the nation?s long-term fiscal problems ? has been a constant topic at town-hall-style sessions and other public gatherings during a two-week Congressional recess that provided the first chance for lawmakers to gauge reaction to the plan.

An example of the response came Tuesday as Representative Daniel Webster, a freshman Republican from Florida, faced an unruly crowd at a packed town meeting in Orlando, where some people, apparently organized or encouraged by liberal groups, brandished signs saying ?Hands Off Medicare? and demanded that he instead ?tax the rich.?

Mr. Webster, shown in video from station WFTV, sought to defuse the situation by saying that any changes were years away and that current retirees would not see a difference. ?Not one senior citizen is harmed by this budget,? he said, noting that his new granddaughter was ?looking at a bankrupt country.?

Under the Republican proposal, Medicare would be converted into a program that would subsidize health coverage for retirees rather than provide coverage directly, a change that many Democrats say would risk leaving the elderly with inadequate health care as costs rise over the long run. The Republican budget would also transform Medicaid, which pays for nursing homes for low-income residents, into a grant program to states, raising the possibility that states, under budget pressure, would cut back on coverage.

Democrats face political pressure as well to show that they can bring spending under control and rein in the growth of the national debt, and there are fissures within the party about whether to back tax increases and raise the national debt ceiling without concrete steps to bring down the budget deficit.

Before the release of Mr. Ryan?s proposal, Republicans had expressed confidence that public opinion had turned in their favor, and on Tuesday House leaders sought to reassure Republicans that their budget approach would eventually carry the day. Led by Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio, Republicans held a conference call urging House members to tell voters that it is the Obama administration?s spending plan that would cost jobs and ration health care.

Officials familiar with the call said that rank-and-file lawmakers did not seem alarmed at the response they were getting, and that Mr. Ryan told his fellow Republicans he had been successful in making the case that Medicare would go bankrupt without intervention. Mr. Ryan said he stressed with his constituents that those over 55 or currently on Medicare would still be covered under the existing program.

But news reports noted that Mr. Ryan himself faced a mixed response Tuesday as he held tense meetings with voters, some of whom were turned away because of overflow crowds. It was another indication that Republicans still have a big selling job to do on their budget, especially to older constituents who tend to turn out to vote at higher rates than younger people.

?I think what we have in Washington right now working on Medicare are a bunch of clowns,? said Robert Murphy, 73, a retiree in Fort Lauderdale. ?I think they should leave Medicare alone. But I know they can?t leave it the way it is.?

At Mr. West?s meeting on Tuesday evening here, he took only written questions submitted by the audience. The queries were largely friendly, but some people did pipe up loudly about Medicare, accusing him of making misleading remarks. Several were escorted out by security. 

Democrats and their allies are stepping up their efforts to organize opposition at public events. They hope to put Republicans back on their heels much as Republicans did to Democrats in the angry town-hall-style meetings conducted during consideration of the health care law.

?We have said from the moment the gavel came down on the vote to end Medicare we would hold them accountable every day in every way,? said Representative Steve Israel of New York, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. ?That is precisely what we are doing. We encourage everyone to attend these meetings.?

Democrats and other interest groups are mobilizing a campaign that includes automated phone calls, radio and television ads and protests to keep the pressure on Republicans. Americans United for Change, a liberal group, was running automated calls in 23 Republican House districts and television ads in four districts in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, in which an  announcer says that a  House-approved budget amounts to ?ending Medicare so millionaires can get another tax break.?

Republicans began to hit back this week, with efforts in the districts of conservative Democrats to change the subject from Medicare to overall federal spending. A new radio ad against Representative Mike Ross, Democrat of Arkansas, paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee, tells Arkansans that he would continue ?to spend your money recklessly.?

As they begin a lengthy battle for public opinion on budget issues, many Republicans say much of the outrage at their meetings stems from Democratic plants sent by MoveOn.org and other liberal groups.

?My town halls are being disrupted by Democrats,? said Representative Lou Barletta of Pennsylvania, whose meetings have been peppered with complaints about Republican policies. ?They are apparently being sent to us to do just that. I am not sensing the general public is angered over Medicare reform. When I explain that people over 55 are not affected there is almost a sigh of relief.? He added, ?I am not going to do anything different.?

Jennifer Steinhauer reported from Fort Lauderdale, and Carl Hulse from Washington.

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Amazon to Apple: the term "app store" is generic

Last month, Amazon launched its own Android App Store and was promptly sued by Apple for using the term "app store." Amazon has since responded in court, calling Apple's claim to the App Store trademark baseless, and pointing to a statement from Apple CEO Steve Jobs for evidence in its favor.

The Seattle-based online retailer has asked a federal judge in San Francisco to throw out Apple's trademark suit, calling the phrase "app store" generic and not something that Apple can claim for its exclusive use. In the 10-page filing (PDF, via GeekWire), Amazon quotes Jobs, who, when speaking on Apple's quarterly conference call last fall, repeatedly referred to app stores in a generic sense:

So there will be at least four app stores on Android, which customers must search among to find the app they want and developers will need to work with to distribute their apps and get paid. This is going to be a mess for both users and developers. Contrast this with Apple's integrated App Store, which offers users the easiest-to-use largest app store in the world, preloaded on every iPhone.

Microsoft started the legal battle against Apple's trademark of the term app store, and ended up effectively representing all the companies that want to or are already trying to use the phrase. Amazon now appears to be agree with Microsoft's core argument: that "app store" is as generic as "shoe store" or "toy store." As a result, the term should not belong to one company.

Three months ago, Microsoft asked the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) to reject Apple's application to trademark the term "App Store" because it is too generic. Apple countered back by reminding Microsoft that it successfully trademarked "Windows" a few decades ago.

Last month, Microsoft filed yet another legal filing against Apple, citing Amazon's new store as evidence that other companies need to be able to use the phrase to accurately describe their mobile application marketplaces. The issue is still in the hands of the US Trademark Trial and Appeal Board and will hopefully be resolved in the next few months.

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Playstation Network hacked and user information stolen, here?s what you have to do

We have discovered that between April 17 and April 19, 2011, certain PlayStation Network and Qriocity service user account information was compromised in connection with an illegal and unauthorized intrusion into our network.

Although we are still investigating the details of this incident, we believe that an unauthorized person has obtained the following information that you provided: name, address (city, state, zip), country, email address, birthdate, PlayStation Network/Qriocity password and login, and handle/PSN online ID. It is also possible that your profile data, including purchase history and billing address (city, state, zip), and your PlayStation Network/Qriocity password security answers may have been obtained. If you have authorized a sub-account for your dependent, the same data with respect to your dependent may have been obtained. While there is no evidence at this time that credit card data was taken, we cannot rule out the possibility. If you have provided your credit card data through PlayStation Network or Qriocity, out of an abundance of caution we are advising you that your credit card number (excluding security code) and expiration date may have been obtained.

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Governor of Mississippi Won?t Run for President

In a telephone call to supporters, followed by a brief statement, Mr. Barbour said he lacked the ?absolute fire in the belly,? that a candidacy would require. He apologized for flirting with a presidential bid over the last six months and then backing away, but said he had concluded that he was not ready to dedicate himself to the ?all-consuming effort? a campaign would require.

?I cannot offer that with certainty,? he said, ?and total certainty is required.?

The decision by Mr. Barbour, 63, provided the biggest shake-up yet of the 2012 presidential race. His departure adds another layer of uncertainty to the wide-open fight for the party?s nomination and set off a scramble among other candidates seeking to sign up his donors and supporters.

Throughout the spring, Mr. Barbour has been traveling to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, testing his support among Republicans who cast the first votes. He recruited a team of operatives in those states, along with national campaign strategists, and rivals expected him to join the first Republican debate next week in South Carolina.

But his candidacy faced many challenges. As a lobbyist, for example, he represented tobacco companies, the pharmaceutical industry and several foreign governments. He sought to sell the experience as an advantage, telling audiences, ?I saw the sausage factory up close,? but his aides braced for intense scrutiny.

Mr. Barbour founded the Washington lobbying firm now known as BGR in 1991 with Ed Rogers, a close friend who had worked with him in the Reagan White House. The next year, Lanny Griffith, who worked in the administration of President George Bush and also hailed from Mississippi, joined them. They formed the foundation of a powerhouse firm with close ties to the Republican establishment.

Mr. Barbour left the firm in 2004 when he became governor of Mississippi, but associates say he is a frequent visitor to the office when he is in Washington. Since his formal departure, reports have shown that he has continued to draw hundreds of thousands of dollars from a blind trust that held stock in the firm?s parent company.

His decision touched off a new round of speculation about Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana, a close friend who is also weighing the possibility of entering the Republican race. Mr. Daniels has said he intends to make a decision as early as next month. (Representative Ron Paul of Texas is set to announce on Tuesday that he is opening a presidential exploratory committee.)

It remained an open question where Mr. Barbour?s supporters would go ? or if he would try to direct them to one candidate ? but his decision could help other contenders, including those trying to emerge as the leading alternative to Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts. Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor, probably faces an easier time winning establishment support with Mr. Barbour out of the picture.

Newt Gingrich, a former speaker of the House from Georgia, is now expected to be the only Southerner in the race. That could help him in the South Carolina primary, which follows the opening contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Katon Dawson, a former chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party, said in an interview that he believed Mr. Gingrich would stand to gain the most from Mr. Barbour?s decision. But Mr. Dawson said that the contest remained remarkably unpredictable and that other potential candidates, like former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, needed to make their decisions soon.

There had been questions about Mr. Barbour?s health. He had back surgery last week, hoping to correct a condition that caused him noticeable pain. Last month, he said he had lost 20 pounds and intended to lose 20 more by the end of April.

But nine days ago, after speaking at a Republican county convention in South Carolina, Mr. Barbour grabbed a doughnut before heading for the door. He had not been seen doing that ? in public, at least ? in months.

Eric Lichtblau contributed reporting.

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Microsoft resurrects the infamous Clippy for new Office training game

He?s back. The talking paperclip. And no, he is not less annoying than before.

Microsoft has seen it fit to build a sequel to the application ?Ribbon Hero,? a training tool that masqueraded as a game, designed to help people learn the ins and outs of Office. Why, you might ask, would Microsoft do such a thing? Because, and honestly this baffles us at TNWmicrosoft, people are still afraid of the Ribbon interface of Office 2007 and 2010.

How the masses have not yet manged to adjust to intuitive interface changes that improve their beloved productivity line is confusing. Still, Microsoft wants to combat the problem because they want to sell more copies of Office. It only makes sense.

Right, so Ribbon Hero 2. We aren?t sure what to tell you about it because it is a game that is built on using Office. That handicap aside, the game is not too boring. If you are one of those Luddites who still fears the most recent versions of Office you might want to try it out.

If not, do not play. Why not? Because the subtitle of the game is ?Clippy?s Second Chance;? the game is an exercise in helping Clippy get home. Screw Clippy, he was annoying as frack for years. He can get home by himself. If you play you are only encouraging him.

Microsoft should take the graphic artists and UI personnel that helped build Ribbon Hero 2 and send them to Hotmail, where they are actually needed.

What follows is Microsoft?s short clip explaining why you should play Ribbon Hero 2 ? it won?t be much encouragement, but here it is for completeness:

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Amazon to Apple: the term "app store" is generic

Last month, Amazon launched its own Android App Store and was promptly sued by Apple for using the term "app store." Amazon has since responded in court, calling Apple's claim to the App Store trademark baseless, and pointing to a statement from Apple CEO Steve Jobs for evidence in its favor.

The Seattle-based online retailer has asked a federal judge in San Francisco to throw out Apple's trademark suit, calling the phrase "app store" generic and not something that Apple can claim for its exclusive use. In the 10-page filing (PDF, via GeekWire), Amazon quotes Jobs, who, when speaking on Apple's quarterly conference call last fall, repeatedly referred to app stores in a generic sense:

So there will be at least four app stores on Android, which customers must search among to find the app they want and developers will need to work with to distribute their apps and get paid. This is going to be a mess for both users and developers. Contrast this with Apple's integrated App Store, which offers users the easiest-to-use largest app store in the world, preloaded on every iPhone.

Microsoft started the legal battle against Apple's trademark of the term app store, and ended up effectively representing all the companies that want to or are already trying to use the phrase. Amazon now appears to be agree with Microsoft's core argument: that "app store" is as generic as "shoe store" or "toy store." As a result, the term should not belong to one company.

Three months ago, Microsoft asked the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) to reject Apple's application to trademark the term "App Store" because it is too generic. Apple countered back by reminding Microsoft that it successfully trademarked "Windows" a few decades ago.

Last month, Microsoft filed yet another legal filing against Apple, citing Amazon's new store as evidence that other companies need to be able to use the phrase to accurately describe their mobile application marketplaces. The issue is still in the hands of the US Trademark Trial and Appeal Board and will hopefully be resolved in the next few months.

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The Guantanamo Files: Dossier Shows Push for More Terror Attacks After 9/11

In the months after the Sept. 11 attacks, Mr. Paracha, 63, was one of a small circle of Al Qaeda operatives who explored ways to follow up on the hijackings with new attacks, according to the classified Guantánamo files made available to The New York Times.

Working with Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, the 9/11 planner who in early 2002 gave him $500,000 to $600,000 ?for safekeeping,? Mr. Paracha offered his long experience in the shipping business for a scheme to move plastic explosives into the United States inside containers of women?s and children?s clothing, the files assert.

?Detainee desired to help Al Qaeda ?do something big against the U.S.,? ? one of his co-conspirators, Ammar al-Baluchi, told Guantánamo interrogators, the files say. Mr. Paracha discussed obtaining biological or nuclear weapons as well, though he was concerned that detectors at ports ?would make it difficult to smuggle radioactive materials into the country,? the file says.

Mr. Paracha?s assessment is among more than 700 classified documents that fill in new details of Al Qaeda?s efforts to make 9/11 just the first in a series of attacks to cripple the United States, intentions thwarted as the Central Intelligence Agency captured Mr. Mohammed and other leaders of the terrorist network.

The plots reportedly discussed by Mr. Mohammed and various operatives, none of them acted upon, included plans for a new wave of aircraft attacks on the West Coast, filling an apartment with leaked natural gas and detonating it, blowing up gas stations and even cutting the cables holding up the Brooklyn Bridge.

For the small circle of Qaeda operatives described in the December 2008 assessment of Mr. Paracha, terrorism appears to have been a family affair. There was Mr. Mohammed, the terrorist network?s top plotter, and his nephew, Mr. Baluchi, who was married to another militant, an American-trained neuroscientist, Aafia Siddiqui. And there was Mr. Paracha and his son, Uzair.

The newly revealed assessments, obtained last year by the group WikiLeaks and provided by another source to The Times, have revived the dispute, nearly as old as the prison, over whether mistreatment of some prisoners there and the prison?s operation outside the criminal justice system invalidate the government?s conclusions about the detainees.

Hina Shamsi, director of the national security project at the American Civil Liberties Union, said the assessments ?are rife with uncorroborated evidence, information obtained through torture, speculation, errors and allegations that have been proven false.?

Likewise, David H. Remes, a lawyer who represents the elder Mr. Paracha, said in an interview on Monday that while he had not seen the assessment, its conclusion that Mr. Paracha posed a ?high risk? to American interests was without foundation.

?The notion that he ever did anything that justified his detention, or ever was or is any kind of threat to the United States, is preposterous,? Mr. Remes said. ?He is a 63-year-old man with a serious heart condition and severe diabetes, and he has been nothing but cooperative with the authorities.?

What Mr. Paracha wants, Mr. Remes added, is either a transfer back to his native country, Pakistan, or ?a definitive adjudication of his case.?

Jay Carney, the White House spokesman, condemned on Monday the publication of what he called ?documents obtained illegally? and noted the military?s findings about some detainees had been changed by a new review under President Obama. The detailed results of that review, however, remain secret.

Mr. Carney said the president remained committed to closing the Guantánamo prison someday. But Mr. Obama?s review identified about 50 detainees his advisers said could not be tried and were too dangerous to release, and Congress has imposed restrictions on bringing prisoners to the United States.

The portrait of Mr. Paracha is one of the striking ones to emerge from the files. The documents say he attended the New York Institute of Technology in the early 1970s and worked as a travel agent in New York for 13 years.

He was arrested in Bangkok in July 2003 after Uzair, who was already in F.B.I. custody in New York, ?acknowledged? his father was a militant, the assessment says. Uzair Paracha was convicted in a 2005 trial on charges including material support for terrorism and is serving a 30-year sentence in federal prison.

According to his Guantánamo assessment, Saifullah Paracha had ?provided useful information concerning senior Al Qaeda members? but ?attempted to deceive and misinform intelligence and law enforcement personnel about his own activities.? As a result, the assessment draws heavily on statements by others, notably Mr. Mohammed, who was subjected to waterboarding and other brutal treatment during his interrogation by the C.I.A.

But Mr. Paracha?s assessment suggests that he did not deny militant connections at the highest level. ?Detainee claimed he met UBL on a trip to Afghanistan in December 1999 or January 2000,? the documents say, using the government?s initials for Osama bin Laden. It says he offered to let Mr. bin Laden use his broadcasting business in Pakistan to generate propaganda films for Al Qaeda.

Later, Mr. bin Laden dispatched Mr. Mohammed to talk further about the idea, and Mr. Paracha explained ?his vision of dedicating a program on his broadcasting network depicting UBL quoting Koranic verses.?

After 9/11, Mr. Paracha?s discussions focused on new plots, the files say. A Casio digital diary he was carrying when he was arrested ?contained references to military chemical warfare agents, and their effects on humans,? according to the classified assessment. The document says Mr. Paracha told interrogators he had worked with Abdul Qadeer Khan, considered to be the father of Pakistan?s nuclear weapons program and a major proliferator of nuclear technology.

Edward D. Wilford, a lawyer who represented the son at his 2005 trial, said his client had played no ?witting? role in his father?s arrest.

?He was not a part of it in any way,? he said. ?He didn?t make any calls. He didn?t make any contact. In fact, he was being held incommunicado. He didn?t have any way of knowing what was going on.? The son had been jailed in Manhattan on a material-witness warrant after his questioning by the F.B.I. in March 2003. He was charged criminally in August 2003, after his father?s arrest.

The relationship between father and son is only hinted at in the assessment report. It says that analysts concluded that Saifullah Paracha was ?hiding aspects of his son?s extremist activities.? The son, though, talked about his father and his father?s relationship with Mr. bin Laden while testifying in his own defense.

A prosecutor asked whether Uzair Paracha had told F.B.I. agents that his father admired Mr. bin Laden. ?I don?t remember if my father actually said that he admired bin Laden,? the son testified. ?He said that bin Laden was a humble person and he had a simple way of life.?

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Healing Blindness in Mice

Viruses can deliver light-sensitive proteins to specific cells in the retinas of blind mice, allowing rudimentary vision, according to new research. Although previous studies have shown that the light-sensitive proteins can be beneficial, the delivery methods were not practical for humans. The viral-delivery method is similar to ones already used in human gene therapy.

The new light-sensitive proteins were active for the length of the study, about 10 months, suggesting the treatment would work long-term. In addition, the therapy appeared safe; the proteins, which were derived from algae, remained within the eye, and they did not trigger inflammation.

"In my opinion, the biggest step forward in this paper is the use of viral delivery techniques, the same delivery techniques that would have to be used should the technique move on into human treatment," says Thomas Münch</a>, a researcher at the University of Tübingen, who was not involved in the study but has done similar research. Recent gene-therapy studies, which used similar viruses to deliver different proteins, have shown preliminary success in treating a rare genetic form of blindness in patients.But the current approach could be applied to a much broader group of people because it could restore light-sensitivity to the retina regardless of the cause of degeneration.

To restore vision, Alan Horsager, a researcher at the University of Southern California, and collaborators capitalized on optogenetics, a type of genetic engineering that makes neurons sensitive to light. They used a specially designed virus to deliver numerous copies of the gene that makes a protein called channelrhodopsin to the eye. The protein forms a channel that sits on a cell's membrane and opens when exposed to light. Positively charged ions then rush into the cell, triggering an electrical message that is transferred to other cells in the retina.

The gene was modified so that it became active only in specific retinal cells called bipolar cells. In a healthy eye, these cells are activated when adjacent photoreceptor cells detect light. The researchers hope that making the bipolar cells directly responsive to light in an eye stricken by retinal degenerative diseases, such as retinitis pigmentosa or macular degeneration, could enable the altered cells to replace photoreceptors that have died off. Horsager cofounded a startup called Eos Neuroscience, along with MIT neuroscientist Ed Boyden, to commercialize the approach.

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Asus Eee Pad Transformer arrives in the US; already sold out

The Asus Eee Pad Transformer officially arrived in the US today but you may have trouble finding a unit for yourself. A quick check on the Asus' Where To Buy webpage for the Eee Pad Transformer shows that many retailers, including the big ones like Amazon, Best Buy, and Walmart, are already listing it as "sold out" or "out of stock." Rather than ordering online, your best bet is to check your local retail stores to make sure there really are no units left.

The Eee Pad Transformer sets itself apart from the tablet competition with an optional chiclet-style keyboard dock that essentially transforms the device into a netbook. Besides making the device much more convenient to type on and handle productivity tasks, it also extends battery life from around 9.5 hours to 16 hours thanks to a second battery within.

The actual device costs $400 for the 16GB Wi-Fi only model, although the dock will set you back an extra $150. Still, the price is very competitive given that this is one of the few tablets available with Android 3.0 (codenamed Honeycomb).

The Transformer has a 10.1-inch 1280800 IPS Gorilla Glass capacitive touchscreen display, a 1GHz Nvidia Tegra 2 dual-core processor, 1GB of RAM, 5MP rear and 1.2MP front cameras, a Micro SD expansion slot, and HDMI out. You'll also find speakers and audio jacks, USB 2.0, 802.11b/g/n and Bluetooth 2.1 connectivity, as well as a G-sensor, light sensor, gyroscope, e-compass, and GPS. It also comes with Asus' Waveshare interface, which includes MyNet (streams media to networked devices), MyLibrary (digital bookstore) and MyCloud (cloud storage and remote access tool).

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Blog - Mathematicians Develop Stress Test For Global Economy

One of the rapidly growing applications of network science is the simulation of change in the real world. Ecologists, for example, are acutely interested in food webs and how the extinction of one species can have dramatic consequences for others.

The consequences of an extinction can be highly counterintuitive, such as triggering extinction cascades that wipe out many species, like an avalanche. This kind of phenomenon is impossible to test in the real world but it has recently become possible to study the consequences in silico, as we saw just a few weeks ago. .

What's more, biochemists are using the same process to see what happens when a protein is removed from a protein or metabolic network while computer scientists use it to measure how the world wide web would stand up to targeted attacks which remove certain nodes. It's an approach that has been remarkably successful

So it should come as no surprise that economists might want to get in on the act. Today, they are beaten to this goal by a group of mathematicians at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire. Dan Rockmore and a couple of pals have recreated the world trade network from between 1870 and 2006 and then simulated what happens to it when certain countries become less active as might happen during a period of internal strife, or when they disappear entirely. They've also looked at what happens when the trade links between certain countries become broken as might happen during a war.

Theses simulations are a kind of stress test of the world economy. They allow Rockmore and co to see what might have happened to the world economy if history had been different and what might be in store for us if certain events were to occur in the near future.

The results give a unique insight to the state of the global economy both now and in the past. For example, it's possible to work out the most important trade links in the world by asking what effect they would have elsewhere if they were cut.

By this measure, this most important link turns out to be the one between the US and Canada; cutting this link would cause a 4 per cent drop in global income. That's not entirely surprising but many of the other important links are. For example, the second most important trade link is between the US and Mexico. Cutting this link would reduce global income by almost 3 per cent. Then comes the link between Germany and the Netherlands, which would cut global income by over one per cent.

(Rockmore and co do not say whether there are any trade links that, if broken, would increase global income but it'd be interesting to know if these existed.)

They also study how changes in a single economy can influence the rest of the world. This analysis provides an important insight into one of the big economic questions of our time: how important is the continued growth of the Chinese economy?

Rockmore and co simulate what would happen to the global network if China were to decrease its exports by only 5 per cent while decreasing its imports by 30 per cent. They say that if this happened, 94 per cent of the countries in the world would suffer a drop in income of at least 1 per cent. That's a global recession.

If China sneezes, the rest of the world had better be prepared for a serious bout of flu.

The Dartmouth study also makes some unexpected finds. Most puzzling is the discovery that at various times the robustness of the world economy has increased sharply, such as in the mid 1970s, when the average number of trade partners per country increased. That makes the global economy stronger because it gives countries alternative trading partners if one partner should suffer.

However, the simulations show that after this sudden transition, the robustness slowly decreases over time. Just why this happened isn't entirely clear. Further tests should provide more insight.

Overall the process of stress testing the global economy in this way looks to have great value (provided the model is well conceived). It looks to be a powerful way of identifying and evaluating potential threats.

That's got to be an improvement on the kind of forecasts that economists currently rely on, which generally do not admit the possibility of nonlinear change. By contrast, the Dartmouth approach thrives on it.

Let's hope we see more of it.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1104.4380: Stability of the World Trade Web over Time - An Extinction Analysis

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